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HOW TO TRADE LIKE CASINO如何像赌场一样交易

 
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2020-4-15 03:46:21 显示全部楼层
【资料名称】:HOW TO TRADE LIKE CASINO_ HOW T - Jar Wanto    
【资料描述】:

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  Trade Like The Casino
  Warren is in the house @WarrenBuffett
  If you want to trade successfully for a long time you need to understand what business you are in. Youare not in the I-know-the-market-better-than-anyone-else business. You are not in the I’ve-got-thesweetest-pattern-recognition-algo business. You are not even in the economics-analysis business. Whenyou decide to become a trader you enter the risk assumption business.
  And if you really want to succeed in the risk assumption business you need to studytwo key industries that really understand how this game works -- insurance companiesand casinos.
  If you really want to win you need to trade like the house.
  The first thing you learn about both casinos and insurance companies is that theirwhole business model is not based on prediction, but probability. Trading is verymuch the same way. Markets are not predictable. If you haven’t learned that afterseveral years of doing this you haven’t been paying attention. Markets, at best, areprobabilistic. That means that given a certain set of circumstances the probability ofone outcome is slightly better than its opposite. That is hardly a ringing endorsementof certitude.
  In fact it is a description of a world in a state of constant uncertainty -- kind of likeinsurance or gaming. So how do those two industries that have to deal with myriaduncertainties every single day not only survive but thrive as some of the mostprofitable businesses in the world? Here are a couple of rules that both casino’s andinsurance companies use to make sure that the odds in their favor.
  SUCCESSFUL TRADER THINK LIKE CASINO
  There is a simple concept to successful trading that typically gets overlooked anddiscarded as soon as the everyday average ‘would-be winning’ trader encounters afew losing trades. They might have a very effective and profitable strategy but after afew losing trades, that strategy gets tossed out the window and the search for the nextbest strategy begins.
  This is called ‘chasing performance’ and is a trap that normally leads to morelosses. The way it works is that the would-be winning trader waits until the market is‘trading well,’ winning trades have just occurred in other words, and then decides tostart trading.
  The moment he does, his trades lose and the feelings of betrayal and conspiracycome rushing in.
  As the losses continue to mount, there comes a time when our would-be winningtrader takes more pain than he can handle and quits. Of course the next series oftrades are all winners which hurts even more.
  Sound familiar?
  If you’re reading this, chances are you are nodding your head in agreement and canidentify with this unpleasant and all too common scenario. You are not along andmost of us have been there and done that many times.



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